A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
