Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
